It’s no secret that acceptance rates to elite universities have been on a steady downward trajectory for decades. But does this mean that it’s actually harder to get into a top school now than it was 10 or 20 years ago? Let’s take a look at acceptance rates across the top 25 schools from the US News & World Report ranking. Below, we’ve pulled data from three admissions cycles spanning the last two decades: 2005, 2015, and 2025. 

Decreasing Admission Rates Across the Top Universities

College / University	2026 US News Rank (“Best National Universities”)	2025 Acceptance Rate	2015 Acceptance Rate	2005 Acceptance Rate
Princeton University	#1	4.4%	7.00%	10.90%
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	#2	4.6%	8.00%	14%
Harvard University	#3	3.7%	5.30%	9.10%
Stanford University	#4	3.8%	5.03%	7.20%
Yale University	#4	3.9%	6.50%	9.70%
University of Chicago	#6	Not Yet Published	6.20%	40.30%
Duke University	#7	4.8%	8%	22%
Johns Hopkins University	#7	6.5%	9.20%	33%
Northwestern University	#7	7.0%	13%	29.60%
University of Pennsylvania	#7	4.9%	12.30%	20.90%
California Institute of Technology	#11	3.8%	8.80%	16.93%
Cornell University	#12	8.4%	15.10%	26.10%
Brown University	#13	5.7%	8.70%	14.90%
Dartmouth College	#13	6.0%	10.14%	19%
Columbia University	#15	4.9%	6.90%	12.40%
University of California, Berkeley	#15	11.0%	17%	26.50%
Rice University	#17	8.0%	16%	24%
University of California, Los Angeles	#17	8.7%	17.30%	27%
Vanderbilt University	#17	4.7%	11.60%	34%
Carnegie Mellon University	#20	11.1%	23.70%	40%
University of Michigan – Ann Arbor	#20	16.4%	26.24%	~53%
University of Notre Dame	#20	9.4%	19.80%	~32%
Washington University in St. Louis	#20	11.9%	16.74%	20.02%
Emory University	#24	14.5%	23.67%	25%
Georgetown University	#24	13.5%	18%	22.70%
AVERAGE:		7.60%	12.81%	21.97%

Elite College Acceptance Rates are Dropping Significantly

As this chart plainly indicates, contemporary acceptance rates are at an all-time low, making 2005 acceptance rates look like a walk in the park. However, the statistics alone don’t say much about the relative change in competitiveness at these institutions. The lower acceptance rate at Harvard in 2015 compared to 2005 could have, hypothetically, been the result of an influx of mediocre applicants trying their luck at admission at the time. The further decrease from 2015 to 2025 could have, hypothetically, resulted from a widespread campaign on behalf of Harvard to drive up applications.

This is not an either-or situation. Highly selective colleges have drawn a greater number of applications in recent years from those who never had a shot at admission, which has, in itself, increased the desirability of these schools and caused even more students to apply, all while the average competitiveness of admitted students has increased in absolute terms. It’s a feedback loop, to be sure, one that these schools are intent upon perpetuating for the sake of driving down acceptance rates and driving up prestige. Artificial scarcity increases demand. That’s basic economics!

Elite Admissions Are More Competitive Than Ever

But these trends aren’t the result of demographic shifts alone. The ante on academic rigor has also been raised among the pool of students applying to highly selective colleges. This phenomenon is reflected in steadily rising test scores, academic track records, and qualitative assessments of admitted students. What’s more, the Ivy Coach crystal ball tells us that these rates will only continue to dwindle and eventually plateau, indicating that elite American universities have reached a saturation point around the globe and that the greatest proportion of high schoolers possible are applying each year. 

Until that point is reached, acceptance rates will continue on a tangent line towards 0%, and the stock price of an elite education will continue to soar through the roof!