Theories and projections swirled following the 2023 SCOTUS ruling that outlawed the use of race-based Affirmative Action in the college admissions process (with the exception of the Roberts Loophole, which allows students to write about race in college essays). Would Asian American enrollment go up? Would underrepresented minority groups, like African Americans and Latinx students, face lower acceptance rates?

Now that several years have passed since this fateful ruling was handed down by the highest court in the land, we finally have data to substantiate these claims. In the chart below, we’ve laid out how the composition of incoming classes has changed between the Class of 2027 (the last cohort admitted before the SCOTUS ruling) and the most recently admitted cohort for which we have data (either the Class of 2028 or 2029). Red indicates that the group (Hispanic/Latino; Black or African American, non-Hispanic; White, non-Hispanic; Asian, non-Hispanic) has seen a decline in representation on that campus, and green indicates an increase.

Post-Affirmative Action Racial Demographics of Elite Colleges

College / University	2026 US News Rank (“Best National Universities”)	Hispanic/Latino	Black or African-American, non-Hispanic	White, non-Hispanic	Asian, non-Hispanic
Princeton University	#1	-6.1%	-44.4%	-10.7%	12.0%
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	#2	-31.2%	-58.9%	21.2%	18.6%
Harvard University	#3	-2.7%	-24.8%	N/A	37.1%
Stanford University	#4	-25.7%	-59.6%	14.2%	22.2%
Yale University	#4	4.5%	1.1%	16.4%	-16.9%
University of Chicago	#6	-20.1%	-15.2%	3.4%	11.1%
Duke University	#7	4.0%	18.7%	-4.2%	-19.8%
Johns Hopkins University	#7	-51.4%	-59.2%	8.8%	76.2%
Northwestern University	#7	5.3%	26.7%	-12.8%	-15.1%
University of Pennsylvania	#7	-8.1%	-12.2%	-8.8%	5.0%
California Institute of Technology	#11	-3.8%	34.1%	-6.6%	4.6%
Cornell University	#12	12.1%	-35.1%	4.4%	21.3%
Brown University	#13	-25.7%	-40.9%	-1.3%	12.8%
Dartmouth College	#13	29.4%	-4.8%	-8.3%	-13.6%
Columbia University	#15	-14.0%	-38.0%	2.8%	30.2%
University of California, Berkeley	#15	-7.4%	-10.0%	-8.3%	-1.9%
Rice University	#17	-7.2%	-26.6%	8.5%	-3.0%
University of California, Los Angeles	#17	-1.6%	-13.9%	-12.1%	0.3%
Vanderbilt University	#17	-27.1%	-47.0%	13.8%	-1.1%
Carnegie Mellon University	#20	-49.6%	-31.1%	-10.3%	20.7%
University of Michigan – Ann Arbor	#20	-11.6%	3.4%	-1.3%	-7.4%
University of Notre Dame	#20	1.9%	-34.4%	4.0%	1.7%
Washington University in St. Louis	#20	-8.2%	-28.8%	3.9%	-3.9%
Emory University	#24	-7.7%	0.0%	0.8%	-4.7%
Georgetown University	#24	108.9%	-18.5%	-16.2%	19.4%
AVERAGE:		-5.7%	-20.8%	0.1%	8.2%

Before we unpack this data, we should note that there is natural variation in the racial demographics of incoming classes at elite universities that is unrelated to the legal landscape. But taken as an aggregate, the averages at the bottom of the chart show a major shift in the racial composition of elite colleges following the SCOTUS ruling.

Hispanic/Latino Enrollment Trends

Let’s start with Hispanic/Latino enrollment. Across the top 25 national universities ranked by US News, when the dust finally settled, Latinx enrollment among first-years decreased by 5.7% from pre-SCOTUS levels to now. However, some colleges, such as Cornell University, Dartmouth College, and Georgetown University, defied this trend and saw enrollment spikes.

African American Enrollment Trends

For African American enrollment, this figure dropped even more dramatically, by 20.8%. Duke University, Northwestern University, and the California Institute of Technology were among the schools that bucked this trend with spikes in enrollment.

White Enrollment Trends

For white admits to elite colleges during the same window, enrollment increased by 0.1%, which isn’t statistically significant. Enrollment decreased in some cases, increased in others, and stayed relatively stagnant in others. All told, there wasn’t much of an impact on white enrollment following the SCOTUS ruling.

Asian American Enrollment Trends

Asian American applicants to elite colleges benefited most from the SCOTUS ruling, with an 8.2% increase in enrollment. However, certain schools, like Yale University, Duke University, Northwestern University, and Columbia University, among others, saw declines in enrollment, but not enough to offset the prevailing trend.

What People Got Right and Wrong About Post-Affirmative Action College Campus Demographics

For the most part, the prediction that underrepresented minority groups would be enrolled at a lower rate following the SCOTUS decision, and that Asian American representation would increase on elite campuses, ended up being correct. But many speculated that white enrollment would increase alongside Asian American enrollment, and that proved incorrect. In any case, students of all backgrounds should take advantage of the Roberts Loophole to showcase their identities to college admissions officers without penalty.

Unsure where to start? That’s where Ivy Coach comes in. Our team of former elite college admissions officers understands how to navigate race and identity on applications in a post-Affirmative Action world. We’ll guide you through this process so your child can focus on what matters most: getting into the college of their dreams.

To get started with us, fill out our complimentary consultation form, and we’ll be in touch with an outline of our services.