The Ivy Coach Daily

November 18, 2021

An Ivy Coach Prophecy

Ivy Coach’s famously accurate crystal ball hereby reiterates its forecast that applications will be down from last year’s historic highs at many of our nation’s elite universities.

As loyal readers of our college admissions blog know all too well, we have a crystal ball at Ivy Coach. Heck, our crystal ball has even been cited on the pages of America’s oldest college newspaper, The Dartmouth. And to suggest that our crystal ball makes fairly accurate readings would be somewhat of an understatement since our crystal ball is typically spot on with its predictions in the realm of elite college admissions. In fact, back in April, we forecasted that applications — following a year in which applications to our nation’s elite universities skyrocketed — would drop this year, falling back to earth if you will. As we wrote at the conclusion of the 2020-2021 admissions cycle, “And as to those skyrocketing applications and diminishing admission rates, Ivy Coach’s famously accurate crystal ball has another forecast. We believe applications will be down next year for the Class of 2026. That’s right. We believe they’re going down. We expect they’ll be higher than for the Class of 2024, but significantly lower than for the Class of 2025. Accordingly, we believe admission rates will go up next year. We believe they’ll be lower than for the Class of 2024, but higher than for the Class of 2025.”

Well, it does seem that our crystal ball reading — unsurprisingly to many — will very possibly be spot on again. And what clues do we have to prognosticate as we do? Last year at this very time, we reported on the rumors that applications had surged to record levels at many of our nation’s most prestigious universities. Keep in mind that we don’t report on rumors circulating school playgrounds and grocery stores. Our ears are to the ground. And the rumor this year is that applications, while strong compared to past years, are not at the level of last year, an admissions cycle more significantly impacted by the pandemic. So, basically, last year was not a good year to be graduating from high school. This year will be better. Now don’t get carried away. It’s not like we anticipate applications plummeting. We just expect that they will return to 2019 levels at many of our nation’s most prestigious universities.

And what do we base our prophecy on besides our gut instinct, besides our ear to the ground? We base it on history. As you comb through historical Ivy League admissions statistics, you will note that it’s all cyclical. When applications climb, climb, climb a few years in a row, they tend to then drop slightly before they climb, climb, climb again. So current high school seniors navigating the churning waters of elite college admissions, know that you just might have been born in the right year. Lucky you!

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